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A Civil War Seems Looming over Afghanistan- Protracted war Orchestrated to Spread to Russia, China, Iran, and India

By Fateh Sami

Date: 12/07/2021

The Consequence of Occupation and Installation of US Incompetent Regimes in Kabul: The situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating rapidly in proxy wars over the past four decades, especially since the United States decided to withdraw its troops. The United States and NATO allies have been active in the 20-year proxy war, assisting the Kabul regimes financially, militarily and in intelligence operations. The people of Afghanistan were suffering from heavy casualties. The ongoing bloodshed, destruction, internal displacement, outmigration, unemployment, in Afghanistan are mainly due to the mismanagement, selfishness, ethnocentrism and nepotism of President Ashraf Ghani who was propped up fraudulently as the head of state. Opium cultivation, unemployment, insecurity, poverty, injustice, and inequality are the outcome of the corrupt regime in Kabul. He is one of the main reasons for the worsening of the situation, according to many domestic observers and foreign analysts. The Americans’ hasty evacuation of the Bagram military base last Friday has further complicated the current equation, adding to the ambiguity, and conjecturing that “it may be shaping in a secret agreement between the Americans and the Taliban which is swiftly happening.” Verbal warfare is also interesting when firing artillery on battlefields; the government apparently accuses the Taliban of terrorism and belligerence, to cover up its involvement in supporting the Taliban. However, the Taliban do not believe in the political system in Afghanistan, as a puppet of America. The current battles take place in the background of a long propaganda war; attacks against Afghan army forces, as well as civilians, cultural, religious, and educational centres have been widespread for many years. Now, with the fall of more districts (Woloswaly) in the four corners of Afghanistan and the seizure of control of many other cities, civilians and even women, who are now in the shadow of the terror of the Taliban ideology, have been forced to take up arms. Reports received last week indicate that many men and women have joined the armed forces to act if the Kabul government fails to confront the Taliban. This public mobilization is taking place at a time when the repeated statements of Taliban leaders and commanders that the Taliban have no enmity with the Shiites or are not going to take revenge upon the people, have not affected the public’s perception of the group because Taliban as mercenary of Pakistan has long been acting barbarically against civilians, women, and non- Pashtun ethnic groups. 2 | P a g e According to the latest reports from Ghor province in western Afghanistan, after the men of the region armed themselves, women have also taken up weapons to stand up to the Taliban this time so that the events of the 1990s, which led to the group’s complete domination of Afghanistan, are not repeated. The Taliban, which signed an agreement with the United States in Doha, Qatar, with Khalilzad the US envoy for the so-called peace in Afghanistan, now not only calls for the complete withdrawal of US and other troops from Afghanistan, but also for the formation of an Islamic Emirate. For this reason, many questions are unanswered on the precise details and nature of the Doha talks, so much so that the current trend has reinforced the suspicion that a secret agreement could have been reached in parallel with the agreements on the ground. Most doubts arise when the hasty withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan coincides with the heavy military movements of the Taliban, so that not even a few months have passed since the withdrawal of NATO troops. Also, some events in Afghanistan are still indigestible; for example, why was the security of Kabul airport handed over to the Turkish army? Turkey, whose presence in Afghanistan is in the form of NATO, and today with the official announcement of the withdrawal of this security organization, the presence of Turkish forces is basically unjustifiable according to some analysts. What is happening in Afghanistan now has rightly heightened concerns, and one of the most important is the high probability of hired terrorists entering Afghanistan from all over the world. On Monday, some Afghan sources reported the presence of Uighur fighters from China’s Xinjiang province alongside Taliban insurgents. There are also concerns that ISIL may join the Taliban in the coming days or enter the current equations separately. The experience of crisisstricken countries in the region, such as Syria, Iraq and even Libya shows that the security crisis after the collapse of the security establishment caused terrorists from all over the world to gather in those countries. The same possibility also exists in Afghanistan. Border security preparation in neighbouring countries of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan stands as an evidence of the upcoming crisis concern. Meanwhile, the Taliban is expanding its influence in Afghanistan. They first penetrated the south, east and west of the country, and now their infiltration has unexpectedly reached the northern regions, which is home to a large population of Tajik, Hazaras and Uzbek ethnicities. Consistent with authentic reports from Badakhshan, Balkh, Mazar-e-Sharif Taliban has infiltrated in those areas. Many people there were displaced and evacuated their homes. Some have been driven out of their residence by Taliban forces, while others are fleeing to the city centres where the government still controls the situation. According to Hanif Atmar, Afghan Foreign Minister, the national army troops were ordered in 80 districts to withdraw and evacuate their bases which subsequently taken over by Taliban militia. Amrullah Salih, the Afghan first vice president, calls the troops evacuation an intelligence secret operation. It simply demonstrates that evacuation of districts has been masterminded by certain cercles within the government of Afghanistan in line with the instruction of foreigners. If this process continues, Taliban will be in control of many provincial centres. The government officials including the governor and top military personals flew secretly by a chartered plane to Kabul. The retreat was not announced to the low-ranking military personnel to be prepared for the withdrawal. But was only announced to those who 3 | P a g e were involved in this plot. If the evacuation plan was under way, why the troops stationed in Badakhshan was not informed to get prepared to retreat from their positions. Consequently over 100 of them were killed by Taliban after capturing the city, Dr. Pedram said in a meeting. This is an indication of Kabul regime conspiracy in speeding the infiltration of Taliban in the north to inflaming ethnic conflict. While the nations shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore. The regime of Ashraf Ghani has done nothing but to spread hatred and animosity among the people of Afghanistan. Most of those Taliban in Badakhshan were previously members of Jamiat-e -Islami Party, most likely they were bribed to join Taliban. They are the indigenous people of Badakhshan and Takhar, mostly Tajik, and Uzbek but directly acting under the command of Pashtun dominated Taliban. Given the protracted war in Afghanistan and its implications for the region, it is likely that countries which will be affected, instead of competing over it, will move towards cooperation so that they may be able to play a role in building a stable Afghanistan, in which all military and political forces share in power in some sort of a federal democratic administration. Pakistan should be stopped from backing Taliban and providing a haven for terrorists’ groups in Pakistan. Following these insecurities and the fall of cities in Afghanistan’s Balkh province to Taliban, the consulate of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of Balkh province, was closed and evacuated. The Turkish and Pakistani consulates are also closed in Mazar-eSharif. The United States is preparing for a different scenario. According to Political analyst, as the Taliban tighten their grip on various areas around the capital, with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the country has entered a dark corridor and the US embassy in Kabul is being threatened from all sides. At the same time, some US diplomats believe that the endurance of this weak Afghan government cannot be trusted, let alone its support for the diplomatic missions that should remain in the country. The US Embassy appears to be on standby. Taliban influence will lead to a security vacuum and given that Afghanistan’s current system relies heavily on US and NATO military support, the Taliban are seeking to increase their power by withdrawing that support. The United States and its western allies leave Afghanistan in a precarious situation. At the time when a civil war is likely to happen in Afghanistan, it is necessary for the neighbouring countries and the region to work together prevent the occurrence of a civil war. Essentially, Ashraf Ghani’s regime should be replaced by a broad-based government to get involved in a sound and clear negotiation with the opposition groups to resolve the current crises with the help of international organisations. “According to the UAE’s Al-Bayan newspaper, political analyst Maxim Yousin believes that the end of the US headache in Afghanistan will be the beginning of a headache for Russia.” The withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan will lead to a security vacuum, and this is a matter of concern for Russia. Disturbing Afghanistan’s security will create problems for neighbouring countries in Central Asia. This may also increase the influence of ISIS and alQaeda. If the government in Afghanistan changes, it will affect not only Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, but also the Russian Federation in the Muslim republics, turning Afghanistan into a testing ground. Abdul Hamid Tawfiq, an analyst at Al-Ain newspaper in the UAE, also writes, “The US military withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused a lot of speculation about the post-US 4 | P a g e withdrawal phase.” Throughout history, this country has been the centre of conflict and the point of conflict between the policies and interests of regional and trans-regional countries. Also, in some stages, this country has become a battleground between countries through proxy groups, and consequently these countries have tried to influence the developments in the region and international relations. Even now, speculations about the developments after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan are not only related to the internal situation in this country. Because the Taliban are hiding behind the supporters of their ideology and military plans and the philosophy of their special government system. As some reports show, elements of ISIL and al-Qaeda in some areas are counting the moments to take control. Some countries are also affected by the developments in Afghanistan due to their natural, geographical, political, and strategic interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, while speaking in Moscow, asserted that thousands of ISIS terrorists are present in northern and eastern Afghan regions and are being joined by militants fleeing Syria and Iraq. Afghanistan is bordered by Pakistan to the south and east, Iran to the west, and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north. Russia considers Afghanistan’s northern border as a belt for its southern borders. Afghanistan also shares a border with China. The United States is one of the enemies of some countries that are trying to fill the void left after its withdrawal. Given that the Biden administration sees China and Russia as a major challenge to the United States, it can be speculated that the US government wants to plunge the two countries into the swamp of Afghanistan. Despite the complexity of the Afghan scene, this does not mean that there is no opportunity for agreement and convergence between the international powers that will compete in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan. China has lines of communication with the current Afghan government and can expand its influence through soft economic and trade investment instruments. The plan will only be implemented if Afghanistan’s security is stable, and Pakistan can play a role in this and share interests with Beijing. China can also work with Russia and other countries to secure the interests of all parties because of specific agreements. This cooperation could be an alternative to the tensions that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan shows. But clearly not under the leadership of Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai, who have been the supporters of Taliban overtly and covertly. Unprecedented cooperation can be used instead of potential tensions for interests and influence. Especially since these countries are at the centre, they disagree with the United States on many bilateral and multilateral issues. Mr Saeedi an Afghan political analysis who attended, a large meeting of jihadi political leaders says, “The meeting was held in a tense atmosphere at the Presidential Palace, attended by President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of the Supreme National Reconciliation Council. The talks revolved around national consensus, but the participants at the meeting were frowningly looking at each other as enemies. They were staring at each other in a way that they had not yet received a share from this country. I felt that Afghanistan is facing difficult days. When I looked at their faces and saw their lack of coincidence and disunity, I believe that they do not have any intension to build a national consensus. We have so many prominent personalities and politicians in our country that are secluded from decision making process in their country, bearing in mind that their isolation is not accidental, but intentional. Likewise, those who gathered in the place are not the people for defending Afghanistan, they will not compromise, and they will never refuse to give up their positions and privileges that have wickedly acquired out of US taxpayers’ pockets which were intended to assist the war-stricken people of Afghanistan not a bunch of foreign agents, mafia, national traitors, and thieves.