محبت شماره چهارم

محبت شماره چهارم

پیکار ودلاوری

خواهم که ملا مُری بیاید ویروس سراسری بیاید جان گیرد وجان مولوی…

گفت و گو های بی سرانجام تهران و تمامیت خواهی…

مهرالدین مشید در هفتهء گذشته امیر خان متقی وزیر خارجهء طالبان…

ای میهن ِ رنجور من

 ای خطۀ محصور من ای میهن ِ رنجور من خونی شده جان…

ندانم زچه گویم !

امین الله مفکرامینی 2022-16-01 نــــدانم زچه گویم وچه نویسم…

همسایۀ نامرد

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آرام بختیاری  ناتالی ساراوته، مادر تئوریک مکتب "رمان نو". ناتالی ساراوته(1999-1900.م)، نویسنده…

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عبدالصمد ازهر                …

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طالبان

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A Glance at the cause of failure of two Decades US Occupation of Afghanistan

Fateh Sami

21/09/2021

The role of two classmates- Ashraf Ghani & Zalmay Khalilzad in manipulating the transfer of power to their tribal terror factions.

The outcome of US installed governments in Afghanistan: Based on evidence there have been external and internal factors involved in the collapse of the US-installed governments in Afghanistan. The internal factors are clipped to the corrupt regimes, incompetent rulers directed by foreign intelligence agencies, seeking their interests. The presence of the US and its allies in Afghanistan, as expressed now and then, was not primarily for construction and nation-building in Afghanistan but for their strategic geopolitical and geo-economic objectives. Eradication of terrorists and their heaven was honking as the major motive for invading and occupation of Afghanistan.

Zalmay Khalilzad, American especial envoy for Afghanistan, a failed envoy embarrassing the US administration in supporting and favouring, on his ethnic and tribal affiliation, two incompetent Presidents Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. Ashraf Ghani after the 9/11 incident, he returned to Kabul to be appointed senior adviser to the newly appointed President Hamid Karzai. He was a president behind the scenes according to most Afghan analysts because he was in working as the coordinator of all foreign aids for the so-called rehabilitation of Afghanistan. He served as Afghanistan’s finance minister in 2002, but because of

a lot of embezzlement, disagreeing with Karzai, resigned in 2004 and become the rector of Kabul University. In 2009, Ghani ran for presidential position of Afghanistan but ranked fourth in row with about 4 per cent of the vote.

In a situation where Karzai could not run for a third term under Afghanistan’s constitution, Ghani launched his second election campaign in 2014. He became president in a rig election in 2019

Ghani’s presidency internal rift. His presidency was marked by internal strife, especially with his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, in the 2014 and 2019 elections. In 2014, in an election with widespread fraud, the United Nations was to arrange a hasty recount; But when that failed, then-Secretary of State John Kerry acted as a mediator in the division of power; Arrangements that were tense and divisive.

In the 2019 elections, the election commission declared Mohammad Ashraf Ghani the winner, but Abdullah Abdullah did not accept the result and declared himself the winner. Then both held inauguration ceremonies. Abdullah claimed that the election was rigged in favour of Ghani, otherwise, he would either have gone to the second round or he would have won the election. Finally, five months later, with the mediation of the United States and Hamid Karzai, an agreement was signed between the two political rivals and the controversy ended.

During his presidency, Ghani succeeded in appointing a new generation of educated Afghan youth to senior positions when Afghanistan’s power corridors were in the hands of a handful of elites. But his big promises to fight widespread government corruption, reform the economy and turn the country into a trading hub between Central and South Asia never materialized. He was deeply involved in the corruption with his team of three people taking hostages to the whole population.

Conflict between the Ghaljai Pashtuns and the Durrani Pashtuns:

In the last few years of Ashraf Ghani’s rule, the conflict between the Ghaljai Pashtuns and the Durrani Pashtuns has become more public. According to observers, the conflict between Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, in fact was the fierce ethnic struggle for power, and despite Ghani coming to the presidency with Karzai support. Karzai later sought to oust Ghani. The plan to form a transitional government led by Hamid Karzai also stemmed from the conflict between powerful Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan, some analysts believe. The two powerful

tribes, the Durrani and the Ghaljai have long competed, and their efforts to seize power are part of Afghanistan’s political history.

To find a strong sponsor, the Ghaljais approached Pakistan, which is more aligned with them because most of the ISI high ranking officials including Emran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, also is a Ghaljai Pashtun. The Durrani politicians approached Qatar, given the country’s wealth as nowadays in the circle of political transactions, Qatar has played tangible roles in the political equations of the region.

Tribal conflict between Ghani and Karzai: What occupied the two tribes in the conflict between Ghani and Karzai until yesterday, today is going on between a person who calls himself the caliph (Sirajuddin Haqqani) – Ghaljai and Haibatullah – Durrani. If Haibatullah is alive and finally appears in front of the news cameras, this shoulder-to-shoulder competition will continue with more intensity. And if it is proved that he is not alive, Mullah Baradar (from Kandahar) will become emir. He has also disappeared; rumour says that he was either killed or imprisoned by ISI in Pakistan. There was a harsh dispute over the distribution of power in the palace between the two militant factions of the Taliban. Kabul, or the capital, is in the hands of the Haqqani. The political cadre of the Haqqani network is made up of terrorists who have been released from prison and have the support of Pakistan.

Most of the terrorist operations have been carried out by the Haqqani group, and the war against the United States was ordered and carried out by the same Haqqani Taliban group. He is currently on UN most wanted terrorist’s blacklist.

Pervez Musharraf the former Pakistani president was calling the Haqqani group, Haqqani group is their hero. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of Hezbe- Islami, bombarded Kabul city at the time of Professor presidency, launching hundreds of rockets per day indiscriminatingly, because of which around 75- 100 thousand residence of Kabul were killed maimed and handicapped. He was also said by the Pakistani, ISI chief, “Gulbuddin is a more absolute Pakistani than us. “

Sirajuddin Haqqani, one of the known terrorists, is the deputy of Mullah Haibatullah. Who can believe the United States is not aware of the history of the evils and terror actions of these people? The US is aware of the crimes they committed in Kabul.

Therefore, it can be said that the leadership of the Taliban is also heavily involved in ethnic and tribal conflicts between the Durrani and Ghaljaie, and this tension can cause the Taliban to face increasing internal challenges and differences; Especially since there is no conclusive evidence that Mullah Haibatullah is alive or dead. According to some reports, he was shot dead in 2019, in Quetta of Pakistan. He was very opposed to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, nicknamed as a “rocket launcher”.

Traditional struggle for absolute power evident as before: Given this situation, regardless of the unrest and aftershocks of the hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the security threats facing the people of Afghanistan, especially the people of Panjshir, it seems that the big terrorist groups are gradually preparing to rely on absolute power in Afghanistan. They (Sirajuddin Haqqani terror group) the dominant ruling one, occupying the Kabul Palace, is trying hang on the position of “caliphate” and transfer power completely from the Durrani dynasty to Ghaljai. That is why Sirajuddin Haqqani’s supporters have been calling him the “caliph” for some time now, paving the way for him to become the leader of the Taliban.

There are many other factions aligned with the Haqqani group due to ethnicity and tribal affiliation such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, for PDPA member (Shahnawaz Tanai- who failed in this coup against President Dr Najib and surrendered to the ISI of Pakistan with the help of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar), former Afghan Millat (political party with a chauvinistic notion) and other Mujahidin parties affiliated to the Pashtun tribes, favouring the Taliban militants.

The chronology of the events of the past two weeks in Afghanistan and the untimely escape of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai tells us that he transferred power to his people, the Paktia province Ghaljai, and that was the reason why he did not resign. By colluding with the leaders of his people, he made a historic move and, by betraying the people and deceiving the government, paved the way for the transfer of power to his tribe. But those who remained in the presidential palace (members of the Presidential Guard) said, “out of fear we only had enough time to change our clothes, lay down our weapons and flee.” However, Ashraf Ghani

had preparation for such an unexpected move for the last two years based on undeniable evidence.

· Betrayal’s treason and nepotism: The contemporary history of Afghanistan is full of betrayals, lies and immoralities that will hinder the development of this country for years as it did in past. Ashraf Ghani may have done something, in his narrow-minded vision, for his tribe, but bearing in mind that his tribe makes up a very small proportion of the population in the multinational society. It is likely that many unexpected things will occur in the future opposite to what Ashraf Ghani, the national traitor, was hallucinating.

According to Fars news agency, Ashraf Ghani’s attempt to flee Afghanistan under the pretext of preventing bloodshed in the most difficult conditions in the country has made him even more unpopular since he was in power, and various segments of the Afghan people and even some government officials have called for his trial for being guilty of treason.

· Corruption: The Ghani government, which came to power with the claim of eradicating deep-rooted government corruption in Afghanistan and rebuilding the country, fell victim to the same corruption, and the bitter irony is that he reportedly left Kabul airport with unknown luggage of dollars for an unknown destination. Passively witnessed the collapse of his government, which in the last years of his presidency was first abandoned by negotiations between Washington and the Taliban, which paved the way for the re-emergence of the Taliban in the country and the withdrawal of the United States. The release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners was pressured to pave the way for inter-Afghan peace talks, the results of which never materialized.

· Breeding terrorists in the prisons of Afghanistan; The Taliban were kept in prisons comfortably all necessary facilities such as good food, physical exercise facilities and gyms were provided for them. The people who were alleged of trivial sins were put in gaols with the Taliban to be converted to the Taliban extremist Islamic ideologies.

· Military force tied up not to operate: The national army were not allowed to target the Taliban, when the army were surrendered no air or ground combat, or logistic supply were proved for them. As a result, they were captured, detained, or shot dead.

· Professional combat forces sacked or retired. The experienced professional military officers were either sacked or were forced to retire at young age.

· Nepotism: At the head of key combat and military divisions were the commanders who had ethnic and tribal affiliation with Taliban linguistically and ethnically were assigned, mostly from Lobar province or Ghani’s Ahmadzai clan.

· Secret deal of Ghani with Haqqani Taliban during election as a result he could secure in forged election. Equipping the Taliban group from within the ranks of army was seen many times during the military operation.

The Taliban also considered Ghani an “untouchable” because of his background and actions and refused to side with him. He no longer had much leverage in the final months of his life at the presidential palace, trying to change that view with critical television speeches, but this did not have much effect on improving his image.

The 75-year-old Afghan- American president, who has been described as “lunatic”, “obsessive”, “imaginative”, “wool gatherer” “unrealistic” “gabber”, “ethnocentric”, “nepotist” claimed in an interview with the US television channel PBS about four months ago that had been posted on social media in recent days after his escape. He was claiming, he did not give up. He was also blaming former King Amanullah Khan for fleeing the country. Amanullah Kan who was able to relinquish its protected state status and proclaimed independence to pursue an independent foreign policy free from the influence of Great Britain.

Ashraf Ghani said in that interview: “I am the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, I will not leave my people, I will not leave my forces, I am ready to die for my country.” What a coward egoist.

“He was a micro-director,” American George Packer told National Radio. He had a terrible mood. He shunned all those in power who needed him. In a way, he was running a country that was in his mind. He was so self-confident and so isolated in his pride and talent that he could never take the country with him. He could never run the country he had in mind, and in the end, he was alone.”

Secret deal of Ashraf Ghani in submitting districts and provinces to the Taliban. Ghani was pretending that he was equipping the national uprising and preparing to push back the Taliban but was for weeks withdrawing the national army and let the Taliban occupy the areas without any resistance. During that time, he made no public statements about the developments and did not attend any news conferences.

He praised Afghan security forces in a short video on Saturday, August 14, a day before the Taliban took control of Kabul, as provinces were being taken over one by one due to a lack of resistance from the army and security forces. They had the necessary determination to win. But as everyone waited for his resignation to be announced, he said, there were extensive consultations within the government with the Afghan elders and political leaders, representatives of various segments of the Afghan people and international partners on the developments.

His remarks came a day after the media reported his escape, while Kabul was under siege by the Taliban. With Ghani leaving Kabul, Taliban forces entered the capital Kabul without any clashes and took control of the entire country.

According to Kabul News, before fleeing, Ashraf Ghani had instructed the Presidential Guard personnel to go to the Ministry of Defence and provide security because he would go there to give a speech. He tricked the guard as well. So, a small number of his troops remained in the palace, he then requested a helicopter and headed to the airport to escape. He was well organised with good preparation. Ashraf Ghani was also said that he carried three cars full of dollars.

Former US President Donald Trump has said that fugitive Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has withdrawn $ 200 million from Afghanistan.

Ghani denied that he the withdrawal of dollars from Afghanistan, but according to the evidence in Afghanistan bank he as always is lying.

He was shamelessly claiming that his departure from Kabul did not worsen the situation in Kabul, however, so many people died in two weeks.

Afghan political leaders and observers inside and outside Afghanistan called Ghani’s secret departure shameful and humiliating, saying he had gambled on the collective destiny of millions. Salahuddin Rabbani, leader of the Jamiat-e-Islami Party of Afghanistan, said, “Ghani’s humiliating escape was remarkably similar to the escape of the United States in fleeing Afghanistan.” Leaving in the night and betraying a nation is something we saw a week ago in Bagram, the most important and largest former US military base in Afghanistan,” he added. “If you (the US forces) had taken him with you at that time, it would have been very cheap.”

The role of Zalmay Khalilzad has been disastrous for Afghanistan, disgraceful, and failure for America, if we look closely at his background, Washington’s number one man in Afghanistan.

According to Fars News Agency’s International Group, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, was one of the key figures in the Trump administration’s agreement with the Taliban, which led to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the group’s re-domination of Afghanistan. But he despite his eminent role and the claim that if only one person can bring peace to Afghanistan, he is himself, in recent days, when the irresponsible US withdrawal from Afghanistan leads to chaos in the country. After the Taliban seized power h Khalilzad has remained dead silent.

There are many questions about the controversial role of this mysterious American diplomat in the recent developments in Afghanistan, who, after more than a year of intense diplomacy, travels to foreign capitals, attends summits of glamorous hotels and lectures in prestigious think tanks. He assured his audience that the Taliban were ready to negotiate a compromise with the Afghan government. In May 2021, he told the House of Foreign Affairs Committee that predictions that the Taliban would quickly overtake Afghan government forces and seize Kabul were unreasonably pessimistic.

According to reports, the fact that many do not know about Khalilzad is that he was a classmate of fugitive Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, and both were involved in a student exchange program that allowed them to experience the West up close for the first time.

Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s, Khalilzad has established important ties with the Washington administration at the time of the Afghan Mujahideen when the US was pursuing a policy of supporting them to prevent the progress of the USSR. The Taliban, founded in 1994 in Pakistan at the time Benazir Bhutto mostly from among the war orphans. He successfully lobbied for the supply of Stinger missiles, which played a key role in the Afghan Mujahideen’s victory over the Soviet Union.

Khalilzad continued to work under Wolfowitz under Bush Sr. and during the first Gulf War. Under the Clinton administration, he worked at the Rand Institute in Washington, D.C., and returned to public service when George W. Bush took office, managing the Pentagon’s transition team.

After the 9/11 attacks, George W. Bush became the full-fledged defender of the so-called “counter-terrorism” war. He was part of a neoconservative movement that advocated regime change in countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran through the military.

In the aftermath of 9/11, he served as US envoy to both Afghanistan and Iraq, influencing the US-led government in Afghanistan, from overseeing the country’s constitution to establishing a presidential system.

The Trump administration named Khalilzad in 2018 as its special envoy to oversee negotiations with the Taliban. He seemed to be a good choice for the plan, which was to pull the United States out of the quagmire of the Afghan war, as he had formed successive governments in Afghanistan and Iraq in the wake of successive US attacks and in bringing different groups.

What is the failure of the US in Afghanistan? Khalilzad, his money should be assessed., experts say. 

Abstract of what the people of Afghanistan earned of the US war on terrorism:

Doubts about Khalilzad’s neutrality: Analysts believe that while the agreement forced the Taliban to stop attacks on the US and coalition forces, it did not explicitly oblige them to oust al-Qaeda or stop attacks on the Afghan army. While meeting with then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave them legitimacy, there were also discussions about their presence in the United States to meet with Trump.

 The United States left Afghanistan without a ceasefire or even a framework for a future peace process that was necessary to secure a settlement at the end of the war. Some analysts believe that Khalilzad, meanwhile, instead of compromising with the Taliban in the months following the agreement, put more pressure on the Afghan government, forcing the government to release thousands of Taliban prisoners. Overall, the deal left little time for the Afghan government to manoeuvre, given the timing of Trump and Biden’s departure. However, Ashraf Ghani and the Taliban had relations a long time before. The military forces were not allowed to conduct offensive operations against the Taliban. Khalilzad and Ashraf Ghani both wanted to bring the Taliban into power, fearing that the power should not pass to other ethnic groups, to Tajiks.  

Two days before the Taliban took control of Kabul on August 15, Michael Waltz, a US lawmaker, and veteran of the Afghan war wrote a letter to Biden questioning Khalilzad’s actions.

He wrote: Khalilzad has given you poor advice and his diplomatic strategy has failed dramatically. Due to this tragedy, the representative (Khalilzad) must resign immediately or be removed from office.

On the same day, Khalilzad tweeted that he was urging the Taliban to withdraw their fighters as they approached Kabul.

Although some analysts say that his actions were the end of two decades of the US war in Afghanistan, many believe his mission failed and he signed an agreement in Doha in February 2020. He failed to bring about political reconciliation. According to this belief, the agreement was a clever move by the Taliban to gain legitimacy and political credibility. Khalilzad pursued a specific political program to promote his personal and family interests.

Since “the Bush administration handed control of Afghan policy increasingly to Zalmay Khalilzad in April 2003, he flew to Kabul to meet Engineer Arif, the Afghan intelligence chief. Arif reported that I.S.I. clients were working in Kandahar and Jalalabad…. providing free passage to terror elements to cross into and out of Pakistan in vehicles loaded with arms. “Arif warned the Bush administration that Pakistan was now” promoting instability in Afghanistan.” (1)

“There were about four thousand American and allied soldiers at Kandahar Airfield., their mission was not peacekeeping, but terrorist hunting. They needed reliable local security forces to protect their base and patrol. They had few proven allies in the Taliban heartland. Governor Sherzai filled the gap. For a fee for N.A.T.O.  troops maintained an inner ring of security around the airbase. The governor’s militia maintained an outer perimeter under contract.” (2) Now he is the newly appointed governor of the Taliban in Kandahar.

Khalilzad is said to have established close ties with the Taliban delegation during months of talks in Qatar. Images released of the talks, showing Khalilzad smiling and shaking hands with Taliban negotiators, sparked discontent in Afghanistan.

 At the same time, he believes, there are previous business dealings with the Taliban that call into question his honesty and impartiality. Khalilzad worked as an adviser to US oil giant UNOCAL in the mid-1990s, negotiating deals with the Taliban before becoming the United States’ top figure in Afghanistan. At the time, he was in talks with the Taliban about the possibility of building gas and oil pipelines through Afghanistan.

In 2014, Khalilzad’s financial resources were investigated in Austria for blocking his wife’s accounts in the European country, according to the US Department of Justice, on suspicion of money laundering Trade activities in Iraq and the UAE led.

Before he was appointed US Representative to Afghanistan, some of the people in Afghanistan signed a petition accusing him of “previous actions motivated by ethnicity” an indirect reference to “his support for Pashtun rule after the US invasion.”

In an interview with the Turkish network, Kamal Alam, a senior non-resident member of the American Council of the Atlantic Council, called Khalilzad one of the perpetrators of the chaos and destruction across Afghanistan, adding that he should never be able to clarify his political ambitions in Afghanistan. There was mediation between the United States and the Taliban. Khalilzad is said to have wanted to challenge Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan’s 2009 elections but missed the deadline to register his candidacy.

He said: “How can an American official be neutral when he is running for the presidency of another country called Afghanistan?” While he is an active participant in the “Great Afghanistan Game”, he is by no means able to act as an independent consultant.

According to this analyst, Khalilzad shows the severe failure of US policy in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past 15 years. “Khalilzad’s biggest failure was lying to people and telling different stories to everyone just to please Trump because Trump told him to just get me out of here (Afghanistan),” he said. “I do not care about anything else.”

Mr Ghailani one of the Mujahidin leaders also said, “When the Mujahidin leaders were in Pakistan whenever Khalilzad was meeting them he was lying and using the divide and rule policy.”

Referring to Khalilzad’s continued tenure as US envoy to the Biden administration, he said that even after the US’s hasty departure, Khalilzad’s political value in Washington increased because he was believed to be the only man who could talk to the Taliban.

  • Drug Cultivation and Use: “The U.S. and international partners have continued to pull out and not addressed poppy cultivation,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “What you’re going to find is that it has exploded.”

“We’ve stood by on the sidelines and, unfortunately, allowed the Taliban to become probably the largest funded non-designated terrorist organization on the globe,” said a U.S. official with knowledge of Afghanistan’s drug trade.

The Taliban and public officials have long been involved in the narcotics trade, experts said. The United Nations and Washington contend the Taliban are involved in all facets, from poppy planting, opium extraction, and trafficking to exacting “taxes” from cultivators and drug labs to charging smugglers fees for shipments bound for Africa, Europe, Canada, Russia, the Middle East, and other parts of Asia.

According to the Guardian, “The United States spent more than $8 billion over 15 years on efforts to deprive the Taliban of their profits from Afghanistan’s opium and heroin trade, from poppy eradication to airstrikes and raids on suspected labs. Afghanistan remains the world’s biggest illicit opiate supplier and looks certain to remain so said current and former U.S. and U.N. officials and experts.” 

The estimated all-time high for opium production was set in 2017 at 9,900 tons worth some $1.4 billion in sales by farmers or roughly 7% of Afghanistan’s GDP, the UNODC reported. The UNODC estimated the country’s overall illicit opiate economy that year at as much as $6.6 billion.

U.N. officials reported that the Taliban likely earned more than $400 million between 2018 and 2019 from the drug trade. In  May 2021 U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) report quoted a U.S. official as estimating they derive up to 60% of their annual revenue from illicit narcotics.” (3)

A survey on Drug Use in Afghanistan, issued by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), showed around one million Afghans 9 age 15-64) suffer from drug addiction. Therefore, opium addiction has followed the same hyperbola growth of opium production. “Many Afghans are taking drugs as a kind of self-medication against the hard ships of life. After three decades of war -related trauma, unlimited availability of narcotics and limited access to treatment a major, and growing problem in Afghanistan., “said UNDP executive director.

It was estimated 1 million in 2010, by now it is estimated that around 3 million of population suffer from drug addiction. At least 3 percent were drug addicted in 2009, a number the Un considered to be low, because addiction can be easily concealed and underreported. By 2015 it had risen to 9.5 percent. Addiction among children wasn’t properly counted until, when the U.N. reported that 9.2 percent of children up to 14 years old tested positive for one or more type f drugs and were likely to be active drug users. The main question is that what were the benefits of US presence in Afghanistan backing the most corrupt governments of Karzai and Ghani, but the whole population were exposed to systematic annihilation and devastation. Finally bring back the Taliban criminal gangs who were given a haven in Pakistan. What the operation against Bin laden and Taliban did not take place in Pakistan. 

“Much has been said, and written, about Afghanistan as a leading producer of drugs, causing health havoc in the world.”   It is time to recognize were involved in this creating such a disastrous atmosphere. (4) 

The United stated can investigate and find out the amount of Afghanistan’s high ranking official in foreign banks, including their  NGO and assess the income and expenditure. The high ranking official in corruption should be prosecuted, their money should be confiscated and spent for the poor. Likewise, Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai, who were the cause of failure and the terror groups of Haqqani should be prosecuted, as they were the cause of hundreds and thousand of people in Afghanistan because of their mismanagement and incompetency as the US puppets.  Also, Khalilzad should be prosecuted. He is responsible for the killings of Afghans and Americans. 

  • Afghanistan in a difficult situation: Afghanistan amid Taliban animosity and the danger of a regional war. After the fall of Kabul and the subsequent silence of all governments about the future of Afghanistan, we are once again experiencing a sense of bitterness and suffering.

The Doha agreement was signed only by the United States and the Taliban terrorist group, which put Kabul in the hands of the illegal Taliban. Surprisingly, the legality of the signing and implementation of the Doha Accords was not challenged in US courts.

Afghanistan is made up of different ethnicities and religions. But among the Tajik and Pashtun tribes, based on the composition of the population, there is a possible difference of one to two per cent, being somewhat higher than the rest of the ethnicities. Afghanistan is a country of minorities. The Taliban is made up of different branches of Pashtun sects. Power is divided between those rooted in the great province of Kandahar and the Haqqani network, which has its roots in Loy Paktia. Both provinces stretch from the border of Afghanistan to Pakistan.

While the Taliban have their roots in Kandahar, the Haqqani network is from Pakistan-controlled Paktia. Kandahar leaders like Mullah Omar and Abdul Ghani Baradar have not much interest in ISI (Pakistan Military Intelligence). This is while the organization controls the Haqqani and at the same time wants to play a role in the new government of Afghanistan. While the Kandahari are nationalists and may be willing to make peace agreements and form a comprehensive government with other Afghan ethnic groups. The Haqqani are Wahhabis and extremists, and from the very beginning, they have been the biggest supporters of ISIS in Khorasan, al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups.

The predominantly Punjabi-led ISI has so far supported most Taliban leaders who have been in exile since 2001. Relations with the Taliban date back to the Soviet occupation when Afghan Mujahideen were staying and trained in Pakistan.

In any case, for the international community and for Afghans who still believe in the moderate Islamic Republic in Afghanistan, a government that, if supported internationally, would have both the power and the tools to negotiate directly with the Taliban. Otherwise, there is a danger that no stance will be taken after the ISI chief ignites an Afghan-Pashtun civil war in the hope that Pakistan can take advantage of its tries to add fuel to the fire.

  • Pakistan succeeded apparently to install its proxies, 

The rapid mobilization of the Taliban movement, which led to the complete overthrow of Ashraf Ghani’s government, on the surface indicates the glorious success of Pakistan’s long-standing efforts to consolidate its preferred government in Afghanistan. Islamabad has been pursuing this ultimate strategic goal for more than 25 years since the establishment of the Taliban movement and deserves admiration from terrorists’ organisations for its long-term design and implementation. Faced with growing global concern over the fate of Afghanistan and Afghans under Pakistani rule, Pakistani leaders have sought to remain on the sidelines and generally speak of the need for and importance of forming a comprehensive and inclusive government in Kabul. They bring recent dramatic developments in Afghanistan that have also given credibility to the idea of Pakistan emerging as the first beneficiary of recent developments, and to Pakistan’s overly optimistic assurances of guaranteed close engagement with Afghanistan, which is dominated by the newly installed group. It is considered a proxy of Pakistan.

The successful phase of overthrowing the Kabul government in favour of a new era of Taliban rule will undoubtedly be accompanied by serious challenges, facing Islamabad in the long run. Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban movement, on the one hand, and Islamabad’s ostensible cooperation with the US and allied military movements in Afghanistan. This persuaded the major players in Afghanistan to continue the policy of tolerance and engagement with Pakistan, despite the glorification and hidden grievances about the nature and essence of Pakistan’s two-pronged policy towards Afghanistan. As the issue of Afghanistan fades in the context of international engagement with Pakistan, global attention to Islamabad will inevitably decline. These actors will now have more leeway to shift the weight of their balanced regional approach to New Delhi, given the lesser compulsion they face.

 Given Pakistan’s shaky economy and the vitality of continued foreign investment, loans, and grants from predominantly Western countries, as well as Western-influenced financial institutions, Islamabad will inevitably have to rely on fewer and fewer economic and trade partners. Moreover, the hostility of the people of Afghanistan is not something to be ignored.

  • Afghanistan under Taliban domination: Afghanistan under the Taliban cannot expect to benefit fully from the financial and development assistance that has helped the modernization and rehabilitation of the country’s infrastructure over the past two decades. The emerging events paint a bleak picture of the deteriorating national economy, declining living standards and welfare, and the expected influx of Afghan refugees into neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, with major social and economic consequences for Islamabad. Also, to help the “Islamic Emirate!?”   during the unpredictable transition period and until the available alternative financial resources are needed to run the country on a day-to-day basis, Pakistan will have to participate in providing some of these resources, despite the financial problems ahead.

Contrary to hopes and expectations in Pakistan, it is unlikely that the re-establishment of the Pashtun-dominated Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan will open a golden chapter in Islamabad-Kabul relations. The chronic Pakistan-Afghanistan territorial dispute, Afghanistan’s special relationship with India, and Pakistan’s ambitious idea of establishing itself as the sole channel of foreign trade, as well as Central Asian energy exports, are important factors in Pakistan’s Afghan policy design. And they have justified the Pashtuns in Kabul.

At the same time, the long-standing paradox that the existence of a Pashtun favoured by Pakistan to occupy Kabul is the same claimant in the territorial dispute case remains unresolved. Since the establishment of Pakistan, no Afghan government, including the Taliban, has expressed the slightest desire to recognize the Durand Line as the official and agreed on an international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given the growing number of Pashtuns living in Pakistan over the number of Pashtuns living in Afghanistan, as well as the inviolable ethnic ties between Pashtuns on both sides of the border, the presence of a Pashtun regime in Kabul could create grounds for separatist tendencies in Pashtun areas of Pakistan. In terms of relations with India, Pakistan’s hopes for a consensus with the Taliban government on Islamabad’s vision for engaging with New Delhi are unlikely to materialize.

  • Fearful of continued international isolation:  Taliban leaders have expressed their desire to establish and maintain friendly foreign relations on various occasions. “India is of great importance to the subcontinent in the region. We call for continued cultural, economic and trade ties with India,” senior Taliban leader Shir Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai said on August 29. “We are the same as before.” This message of friendship, along with previous overt or covert contacts by Indian government envoys with senior Taliban officials and assurances of mutual goodwill, has cast serious doubt on any presumption that Pakistan and the Taliban’s future policy towards India is one-sided.

 With particular attention to Pakistan’s internal security, Taliban domination of Kabul will inevitably motivate separatist or terrorist groups with similar ideological origins and goals similar to the Taliban. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is the most notorious and dangerous group of its kind, which has been responsible for major terrorist attacks since its inception in 2007, particularly in Peshawar and Quetta. Although Pakistani security forces have largely succeeded in thwarting the group’s terrorist capabilities, the possibility of organized links between the two movements on both sides of the border and the resumption of the group’s terrorist activities in Pakistan remains Islamabad’s serious concern. With security threats as well as managing relations with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

The consolidation of the Taliban government in Kabul and the passage of several critical months needed to consolidate its power base will answer the serious question of whether Pakistan’s steadfastness in achieving vital strategic depth in Afghanistan has ultimately paid off, or whether this investment excessive and long-term doomed to failure in terms of their initial success.

  • To be continued. 

 References: 

Cool S, Directorate- The C.I.A.  and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016. 2019. 1st edn, Penguin Random House UK. P155. 

Cool S, Directorate- The C.I.A.  and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016. 2019. 1st edn, Penguin Random House UK. P137. 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jan/09/how-the-heroin-trade-explains-the-us-uk-failure-in-afghanistan

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https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/press/releases/2010/June/unodc-reports-major-and-growing-drug-abuse-in-afghanistan.html